Back on Jan. 11, Peter Funt's column appeared in The Star newspaper, titled, "Cry me an atmospheric river." The author wrote about some of the terms used in weather forecasting, and how news media have sprinkled melodramatic dust on these terms, causing some to react like the person in the painting, "The Scream," by Norwegian artist Edvard Munch.

Let's take a leisurely swim into the waters of the phrase "atmospheric river." It is real, and is recognized by meteorologists. Yet, it shouldn't cause folks to gather the family and hunker down in their protective apocalyptic storm shelter.

Five years ago, in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, an article addressed the history of the term "atmospheric river." It stated that Atmospheric River (AR) first appeared in scientific writings in the early 1990s. "A common popular definition is something along the lines of a 'river in the sky,' albeit as a river of water vapor rather than of liquid," the article states. "This general concept has come into regular use in the western United States and in some other regions affected by ARs, partly due to its use by media, and due to the intuitive nature of the concept."

Some in the atmospheric sciences weren't in favor of the term. The term "Warm Conveyor Belt" (WCB) was in use, and there was an understanding what the term meant.

Well, the debate started to flow, if you will. Requests were made for a formal definition for the Glossary of Meteorology (GoM). Yes, there is such a thing as a Glossary of Meteorology. If there wasn't, it would be a free-for-all, a mishmash of terms. No, I don't have a copy of the glossary. If one is gifted, I'll gladly accept, thank you.

In June of 2015, at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, a meeting was held to discuss all things revolving around warm, moist tropical atmospheres. The atmospheres where most all of these rivers originate. Experts in these fields gave their specific perspectives on the various elements that create such tropical atmospheres. There were presentations and ultimately, the conclusion was that the various concepts they each brought to the meeting were interrelated, with a few distinctions.

A few other meetings followed. Finally, a definition was refined, a schematic was developed too. In about a year and a half, the definition was finalized, and it is now in the glossary. I won't share the full definition here. Suffice to say that it is comprehensive, addressing where, how, when they occur. Though the closing sentence says a lot: "Atmospheric rivers are the largest "rivers" of fresh water on Earth, transporting on average more than double the flow of the Amazon River."

Regions of the Western United States have benefited from a recent series of atmospheric rivers. Starting in late December 2022, a series of nine atmospheric rivers brought massive amounts of rain, snow, and wind over a three-week period. About 80% of a full snowpack was dropped on California during these events. Statewide in California, precipitation during those three weeks was just under one foot, or nearly 50% of a full water year.

The events proved to be a big boost to snowpack across other portions of the west. Snow water equivalent (SWE) totals are well above normal. The exceptions: the Cascades and Northern Rockies. Following these events, The Natural Resources Conservation Service showed SWE for the California Region at 215% and the Great Basin at 206%. The Upper and Lower Colorado River Basins at 146% and 218% respectively. Those numbers likely have changed now that we are into March. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is showing drought persisting through the lower half of California and most of Nevada and Utah into the end of April 2023.

For our corner of the U.S., The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) for March, April and May this year predicts below-normal temperatures and equal chances of above- or below-normal precipitation. I've written about the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) before. It's the Tropical Pacific occurrence that affects global weather. There is evidence that La Niña, the cooler phase, which generally brings colder and wetter weather our way, will be fading away. Indicators are showing that a transition to neutral conditions will happen over the next few months. More in an upcoming column.

The 2022 Weather Disaster Report was released by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). 2022 tied 2011 and 2017 for the third highest number of billion-dollar disasters. 2022 was the third highest in total costs – behind 2005 and 2017. Not counting the late December winter storm and cold wave that hit the central and eastern U.S., disaster costs are $165 billion.

We will witness a full Moon March 7, the Worm Moon. "Snow slowly begins to melt, the ground softens, and earthworms show their heads again and their castings or fecal matter can be found." Watch where you step!