Pacific coral reefs recorded El Niño events

It seems we are stumbling along with a mix of Spring and Summer weather. Cloudy days, spats of rain and temperatures going up and down. We’ll get to the June weather data later.

Many scientists said one could not extract centuries-old El Niño weather events from Tropical Pacific Coral Reefs – it just couldn’t be done. Well, for some scientists when a problem is posed, they move ahead with innovative techniques and find an answer to the problem. Down Australia way, a group of scientists have published in Nature Geoscience the results of the types of El Niño over a 400-year span. The scientists were able to create a 400-year record using machine learning showing us El Niño types. Their data show that El Niño have changed in recent decades. El Niño and La Niña are events that occur in the Tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño events particularly affect weather globally – precipitation and temperatures.

 “Prior to this research, we did not know how frequently different types of El Niño occurred in past centuries. Now we do,” said co-author from the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes Dr. Ben Henley. So, how did the scientists capture El Niño event information from coral? Seasonal changes can be identified in coral in the Tropical Pacific Ocean using a refined technique of reconstructing El Niño in both space and time using machine learning. “The scientists were able to compare recent coral results with the instrumental record. Dr. Freund found a strong agreement between the coral cores and recorded events. This confirmation allowed the team to extend the record back in time.”

Dr. Freund and her team found there has been an unprecedented increase in the number of El Niño forming in the Central Pacific over the past 30 years, compared to all 30-year periods in the past 400 years. At the same time, the stronger Eastern Pacific El Niño were the most intense El Niño events ever recorded, according to both the 100-year-long instrumental record and the 400-year-long coral record.

As a result, Australian researchers have produced a world-first seasonal El Niño record extending back 400 years and a new methodology that will likely be the basis for future climate research.

How did June 2019 go down in my home weather station record books? Let’s start with temperatures. The high for the month of June was 94.7º F, the low was 42.,1 and the mean was 67.8. The all-time high for June is 105 in 2015, the all-time low was 36 in 2008, and the all-time June mean is 65.6. Precipitation was minuscule, I measured 0.09 inches of rainfall for June. The record-wettest June was 4.29 inches in 1937; 2004 saw the lowest level of precipitation at 0.04 inches, while our mean for June is 1.04 inches. 

There have been some weather extremes here in the United States. Ely, Nevada had its wettest June with 11.59 inches of rainfall. Wilmington, North Carolina experienced its driest June. Barrow, Alaska experienced its highest temperature in June. The June temperatures there have been going upward for the last four years. As of this writing, and just a few days ago, about one half of Alaska was under a Red Flag Warning, meaning, “…critical fire weather conditions are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly.”