Summer ends, what will winter bring?

Before we examine what scientists are expressing about our upcoming 2021-22 winter, I want to share a recap of 2021 summer weather data.

Let’s take it month by month. June — six days over 100˚F, 16 days over 90, high temperature of 113.8˚F and 0.49 inches of precipitation. July — four days over 100, 14 days over 90, high temperature of 104.1 and 0.08 inches of precipitation. August — five days over 100, 10 days over 90, high temperature of 104.1 and 0.42 inches of precipitation.

For the three months of the 2021 summer, total precipitation just under one inch at 0.99 inches. Total precipitation for this year is 3.96 inches. The mean annual precipitation for our location is 10.75 inches. Basic math shows us that we should be somewhere around 7.16 inches. The above measurements were taken at my personal home weather station. Additionally, the June 2021 high temperature, set at our “official weather station,” was 112. The last all-time high temperature for June was 105, six years ago, in 2015.

We are still deep into drought conditions. The current U.S. Drought Monitor is showing our region of Washington state in D4, Exceptional Drought. This drought condition is defined as “Widespread crop/pasture losses. Shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells, creating water emergencies.” In mid-July the governor of Washington issued a state of emergency for 37 counties.

In a news article published on Aug. 17, the CEO of the Washington Grain Commission made these comments: “Wheat farmers in the state could be looking at a 93 million bushel crop this year or the lowest yield since 1973 when the state saw an 89-million-bushel harvest.” He further said, “I think farmers are going to probably wait as long as they can to see, just hoping for some moisture. Where we’re at right now is we are concerned about enough soil moisture to plan for next year’s crop.”

Previously, I’ve written about the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO is the temperature variation of water across the tropical Pacific Ocean at zero degrees, plus or minus, latitude. It fluctuates from warm to cold water, and these temperature variations are referred to as El Niño, warm and La Niña, cold. There are neutral conditions as well.

ENSO influences tropical atmospheric convection patterns and the various complexities of the interaction between the ocean and atmospheric system. ENSO patterns have a significant impact on weather globally. The Climate Prediction Center’s ENSO Alert System Status is now showing a La Niña Watch. What does this mean, and more importantly, what does that mean for our little region of the globe we call the Inland Northwest?

Forecasters are currently stating that there’s a 70% chance that a La Niña event will re-emerge this winter. If a La Niña event occurs this winter, historically, for our region, it generally means colder temperatures and a stronger probability of more precipitation. The opposite generally occurs with an El Niño event. I’m using the word “generally” here because there have been exceptions when a La Niña event occurs. No prediction to be shared here. As we move through autumn and enter winter, weather events will unfold, we then will witness what our winter will bring. Nonetheless, being prepared for winter is always prudent.

Let me share the summary of August 2021 weather data. Remember, all data is from my personal home weather station. Precipitation for August was measured at 0.42 inches, and the all-time highest precipitation was 1.76 inches in 2014. The high temperature was 104.1˚F on the 11th, and the low was 47.7 on the 23rd. The mean temperature for the month was 73.7. The all-time high was 110 set in 1961, and the all-time low was 38 in 1951. The all-time mean temperature for August is 72.

We will have a full moon on Sep 20th. It’s called the Harvest Moon. As for planets visible in September, EarthSky.com shares this: “Mars and Mercury reign as evening objects. Realistically, though, these two worlds will be tough to catch in the afterglow of sunset from mid-and-far northern latitudes, even with binoculars.”