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By Bob Valen 

Climate normals and volcanic unrest

Weather & Science Observer

 

Last updated 5/5/2021 at 8:15am



Climatologists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s office of National Centers for Environmental Information are recalculating the nation’s Climate Normals covering the span of 1991-2020. This process occurs every 30 years.

It started in 1935 when the International Meteorological Organization, now called World Meteorological Organization, asked its nation members to calculate “climate normals” using a 30-year period, starting with 1901-1930.

For the first time, the update will also include 15-year Normals. This should meet the needs of those who want a period closer to current time. Along with the 15-year Normals, NOAA will release high resolution monthly Normals data for the contiguous United States. There will be new tools and methods to access these data sets.

Mike Palecki, project manager for NOAA’s 1991 to 2020 Climate Normals said, “NOAA’s Normals are rather complicated sets of calculations, not just simple averages. These calculations fill in missing data using surrounding weather stations and ensure that daily Normals match monthly Normals. They also remedy discrepancies that might arise when stations change locations.”

Some recent research in the world of volcanology may bring better warnings when a volcano is in the brink of erupting. Findings of research conducted by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the University of Alaska show a new method could be used to predict a volcanic eruption.

The study reviewed and analyzed over 16 years of radiant heat data from instruments on board both the Terra and Aqua Satellites. They combed over data for many different types of volcanos that erupted during the past 20 years.

They found that both thermal and deformation time series mimicked one another. A co-author of the study, Paul Lundgren of the JPL stated, “Using the new thermal method that detects changes in the surface temperature around volcanoes and the InSAR ground-surface deformation measurements helps enable volcano observatories around the word to identify which volcanoes are the most likely to erupt and which volcanoes should be instrumented for closer observations.”

Here is the review of the weather data for the month of April. All data is derived from my home weather station. The low temperature for April 2021 was 24.5˚F on the 12th, while the high was 81.6˚ on the 18th. The mean temperature was 51.8˚. The all-time low for April was 20˚ back in 1936, and the all-time high was 92˚, also in 1936. The all-time mean is 49.9˚. Again, like the previous month, we were on the dry side of precipitation. I measured 0.28 inches for the month. The all-time mean is 0.86 inches, and the wettest April was 1948 with 2.31 inches.

For the months of June, July and August, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is showing our region to have a 40-percent chance of “above normal temperatures” and a “below normal precipitation.” Also, it appears that in the Tropical Pacific, home to the La Niña and El Niño events, that a transition is occurring. Predictions are ENSO-neutral to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere summer (ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation). These events in the Pacific can and have affected the weather patterns here in the Inland Northwest.

With a generally clear sky at night this time of year, it’s a good time to view the night stars and visible planets of our solar system. Our friends at EarthSky.com share this regarding what to look for when you view the night sky: “Mars is the only visible planet out after nightfall. You’ll find it descending in the west each evening in May 2021. Also watch for brilliant Venus and little Mercury low in the west, for a brief time after sunset. Bright Jupiter and ringed Saturn grace the morning sky. A full Moon will occur on May 26th and is the second and last Super Full Moon of the year. This full Moon is also known as the Flower Moon in many cultures.

Being able to see Mars after nightfall is good. If you have a really nice super telescope, maybe, just maybe, you can see the little “helicopter” called Ingenuity, on one of its test flights that NASA is conducting on Mars – maybe!

 

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