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By Bob Valen 

El Niño and the ENSO

 

Last updated 8/8/2018 at 10:26am



In past columns I’ve talked about the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), or as some call it, the Southern Oscillation. Let me briefly review what this thing does. There are two ocean temperature and wind actions that occur down along the Tropical Pacific Equator that can, and do, affect global climate. These fluctuating ocean wind and temperature events also play a role in our winters here in the Pacific and Inland Northwest. One is referred to as El Niño (the child, Spanish) and the other is called La Niña (the girl, Spanish).

Currently, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) states, “The odds of El Niño emerging in the tropical Pacific by fall have risen to 65 percent, and by winter to 70 percent.” OK, the El Niño half of these occurrences is emerging, so what does that mean for our neck of the woods? Well, El Niño has generally meant that the odds are favorable for a warmer and likely drier winter. I say generally because there have been some variations depending, in part, on the strength of the El Niño event. I’m planning to research data from our local official weather station, operated by the Bureau of Reclamation, and create a chart that shows seasonal minimum temperatures and total snowfall and the state of ENSO for a given winter season. Hopefully, if all goes well, I’ll present that chart in this column this winter.

Let’s recap July 2018 and see what it brought. Total precipitation was, well, poor. At my home weather station, I measured 0.04” of rain. The official weather station for our region measured 0.03”. This amount, or lack thereof, is not a record. Just last year, we had 0.00” precipitation. The mean average for July is 0.47” and the record rainfall was 2.94” in 1993. The month was on the warm side. We had six days in the triple-digit range; that’s 20 percent of the month with high temperatures over 100˚F. A high of 103.8˚F occurred on the 30th of the month. The all-time high temperature was 113˚F back in 1939. Our mean for July was 77.7˚F while the mean average is 73.1˚F, a difference of 4.6˚F. The low temperature was 46.7˚F on the 2nd of the month. The all-time low for July was 32˚F in 1983. The low mean average is 48˚F.

An uncharacteristic heat wave has hit parts of the world rather hard. In Scandinavia, record heat is causing rapid glacier melt-off. In Sweden, areas above the Arctic Circle are burning. Next door in Norway, reindeer are sheltering in roadway tunnels because of the heat. It’s been hot here. Please stay cool if you have to be outside; the heat is not over.

Let’s turn our eyes to the sky and the cold of space. August brings us the Perseid meteor shower. Some of the better viewing will be during the early morning hours of August 11, 12, and 13. The moon will cooperate and not be visible in the sky. Unfortunately, it looks like smoke and haze may well interfere with some viewing. August allows us to view four planets across the evening sky. From our west across to the east night sky, you should see these planets — Venus, Jupiter, Saturn and Mars. A full moon will occur August 26. If you would like to view the night sky with others and some knowledgeable people, join the National Park Service Sky Rangers on August 10 after sunset at Crescent Bay, or August 11 at Spring Canyon Day Use Area.

 

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